Год выпуска: 2010 Автор: VOON CHOONG YAP Издательство: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing Страниц: 224 ISBN: 9783838310244
Описание
A simple transformation is used to transform the normally distributed random variable E to a random variable R such that the distribution of R has fatter tails and thinner waist than the normal distribution. The fat-tail distribution is shown to give a good fit to the data on return of the portfolio in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The following methods are used to find the distribution of the return of the portfolio: 1)Simulation 2)A combination of simulation and numerical integration. 3)Approximate method which involves the derivation of the first four moments of the return of the portfolio. The distribution thus found for return of the portfolio agrees well with the observed distribution of return of the portfolio. Value at Risk (VaR) based on the fat-tailed distribution is found to outperform the VaR based on the multivariate normal distribution. An approximate 95% confidence interval is found to be able to cover the true value of the VaR with a probability...
