Год выпуска: 2013 Автор: Andualem Shimeles Издательство: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing Страниц: 104 ISBN: 9783659336584
Описание
To assess how stream flow in Gilgel Abbay River Basin will be affected by climate change, the HadCM3 model, developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom, was used to generate medium-high and medium-low emission scenarios in this study. The statistical downscaling model was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Gilgel Abbay River Basin. Three benchmark periods simulated were 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s), and 2071–2099 (2080s). The time series generated by HadCM3 and statistical downscaling method indicate a significant increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature values, and a decreasing trend in precipitation. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the SWAT model suggested an overall...
