Год выпуска: 2014 Автор: Tillmann Sachs Издательство: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing Страниц: 420 ISBN: 9783659533075
Описание
How to quantify risks in the absence of historical data or time series? This book develops a methodology to quantify expert opinion on risk factors which have significant impact on cash flow projections in life-cycle infrastructure projects. It applies fuzzy set theory, stochastic simulation, and robust statistics to formalize the "QQIR-Method", which bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods. The QQIR-Method is then applied to political risks in infrastructure projects in Asia. The book contains a number of case studies and survey interviews with tier-1 market participants. It also provides an easy to use practical guide to apply and replicate the QQIR-Method in ones own professional field.
